where the corn price will go

I. Stock:

1. Fundamentals:

Price: Affected by the price reduction market, the price of basic tidal grain starts to fall below 1800 yuan/ton, with 30 water as the standard lowest price of 1760 yuan/ton. Before Heilongjiang corn grabs too fierce, outside send disaster, dry grain price drops slightly, before and after 2300 yuan/ton, a lot of main body chooses nearby take goods. Harbin direct warehouse 2400 yuan/ton, Hegang direct warehouse 2360 yuan/ton, high quotation, strict standard, small planned purchase quantity.

Psychology: Farmers on: the market is still far beyond the expectations of farmers, continuous price reduction makes farmers take goods actively.

Trader: There are still some concerns, there is the idea of bottom-fishing, but the courage is still lack of support.

Grain enterprises: deep processing enterprises to acquire stable quotations, only like Yu in the price to play a trick, and stop collecting dry grain oppression traders mentality. Feed mill because new season corn toxin problem, begin to collect old grain at high price.


2. Freight data:

The cost of suihua Qinggang third-class dry grain is 2,280 yuan/ton, the freight has not been adjusted basically, but it has not been shipped out, so the price is not suitable.

Jiamusi Fujin second - class dry grain truck 2300 yuan/ton, has been shipped out, the price is not appropriate.

Harbin Bayan second class dry grain loading 2310 yuan/ton, has not been shipped out, the price is not appropriate.

3. Weather changes


4. Peripheral Markets:

Port: The highest bid price has been adjusted back to 2455-2460 yuan/ton. The collection port volume is a little less than last week. State-owned enterprises and central enterprises in Hong Kong are still lowering their prices to depress the mentality. It is said that this round of price reduction is mainly to stimulate the production area to take goods.

Shandong: The shandong market is still in the downward trend, and the price is adjusted according to the arrival of the goods. Last week, there was a large amount of corn in North China, and occasionally there was corn from northeast China. The arrival of the goods was mainly tidal grain, which was not conducive to preservation. Inventory is generally in half a month, limited by storage capacity and weather, the price continues to be under way.

Imports: US estimates China will import 22 million tons of corn; The state held a meeting with deep processing enterprises in Jilin last week, proposing to increase imports in the future and to give more targeted rice, wheat and corn, and asking participating enterprises not to rush for grain.

5. Focus on hot issues (policies, market-leading enterprises)

Will ethanol gasoline be discontinued?

The action of grain depot is worth paying attention to, rotate grain price quite high, late one-time reserve when, what price?

China-us relations


Ii. Futures:

1. Operation idea

C2101 traded at a high of 2544 and a low of 2492 to close at 2527, -0.86 percent lower than the previous session. Volume: 1017,986; Position 1020289, -49637, basis -39; C1-may spread -21. CS2101 finished 2837, 2780 and 2807, -1.34 percent from the previous session. Volume 156264, position 119198, +3239, base +143; Cs1-may spread -74. Did compared to speed up the progress at the grassroots level is expected to reach sales peak, December corn imports increased to corn prices a certain pressure, the arrival of the goods quantity in the downstream processing enterprises also shows that the relatively high price of corn is loose cases downstream purchase intend to ascend, therefore, under the background of spot prices for weakening, corn futures short-term or remained weak, empty can hold before advice, poor short shorts are bearish trading is given priority to, but the gap between supply and demand, superposition of the current period basis back to normal now, expect the spot price of futures weaker drag effect will be reduced, a sharp drop in space is limited, so don't recommend big empty.

2. Operation strategy (with profit stop line)

Short-term corn futures fell as new grains were added recently, but the pattern of high corn futures remained unchanged due to tight long-term supply and demand and bullish sentiment in the market. To sum up, with the acceleration of the new grain market and the increase of corn and substitute imports and other factors, the supply and demand relationship is eased, leading to the short-term corn adjustment. Technically, the increase in technical buying corn, disk presents a volatile market, operation, C2101 main contract temporarily wait-and-see.

3. Risk warning

In the week ending November 6, the total amount of corn stocks (including auction volume) increased by 16.37% compared with the previous week. As the price fell, some farmers were more willing to sell grain. On the import side, port imports of corn and alternative wheat continue to increase, helping to alleviate market supply problems; On the demand side, the output of pigs generally increases, and the planned output of pigs in November will increase by 8.2% month-on-month, driving the increase in the demand for feed corn. Although the spot price of corn falls and the substitution of wheat and corn weakens, downstream enterprises are willing to raise the price, which may restrain the demand for corn.


Iii. Conclusion:

1. Purchase and sales Suggestions

This week is wait-and-see, purchasing is also cautious, no need to raise prices to grab food. It is suggested that the purchase and sale price of 30-water corn this week is around 1600 yuan/ton, so we can be assured of bold purchase. However, the purchase and sale price of 30-water corn is 1800 yuan/ton, which needs careful consideration and selection. As for the purchase and sale price of 30-water corn above 2000 yuan/ton, there is really no need to buy it in the near future. Is to grab the grain, there is no need to directly throw money on the period, because the short-term supply end is not short of grain, grain quality instability is not worth the high bet.

2. The time span of the present report is applicable

All above analyses are applicable within this week, and will be notified and corrected in case of emergency.

3. Future prediction

It is expected that the corn market in the future will be weak operation, at least at the present stage to shandong car volume is still relatively large, will not raise prices. Northeast also entered the peak did, local enterprises has just started buying new JiChao corn, although at a higher price, but is to attract more volume, and can't say corn reserve has appeared, later the northeast corn prices have to fall, is expected to around 100 yuan/ton at most, only to fall, and could fall in place in late November, food market situation will highlight, if coupled with decrease of shandong to the car, rising corn prices will stop falling.